Fossil Future
Fossil fuels still provide 4x the energy than all alternative energy sources combined.
By supplying cheap and abundant energy, fossil fuels have been the principal driver in taking people out of poverty.
Over the last century, the rate of climate-related disaster deaths has fallen by 98%
Wars are won through mobility, thus the nation with the most mobile energy source (oil) usually wins.
Over the last century, fossil fuels have contributed to about a 1°C increase in average global temperature, and it will likely continue to increase the average temperature at a similar pace going forward.
When given the opinion of “experts,” you have to remember that you’re actually being given an interpretation of what the experts say, and that interpretation might not accurately reflect what they really believe.
Because experts operate in a very specific field, it’s near impossible for them to offer a comprehensive assessment or judgment on topics that extend across many fields.
Fossil fuels are a uniquely cost-effective energy source —> Cost-effective energy is essential to human flourishing —> Millions of people are dying due to a lack of cost-effective energy.
Any renewable energy plan that doesn’t include hydroelectric or nuclear, especially if the goal is to reduce CO2 emissions, is not a serious plan.
The term proved or proven reserves means the amount of coal, oil, or natural gas that can be viably extracted using present-day technologies. It does not mean all fossil fuel reserves.
If you measure human flourishing by life expectancy, average income, and availability of resources, the world we live in today is far better than any before it, and fossil fuels have played a significant role in accomplishing that.
The amount of life-enhancing value we can produce at any given time is directly linked to the amount of energy we can deploy at any given time.
A “natural” life is generally at odds with a nourishing life, meaning the negative consequences of unnatural things or states are often outweighed by the benefits.
While fossil fuels can contribute to incrementally higher temperatures around the world, fossil fuels also help us better survive higher temperatures each year. Also, the vast majority of temperature-related deaths come from cold weather, so increasing global temperatures isn’t necessarily a bad thing in terms of maximizing human life.
The role fossil fuels and cheap energy play in machine labor, which maximizes productivity, is constantly overlooked when considering their costs and benefits.
Solar and wind constitute just 3% of the world’s total energy, and that 3% is almost exclusively for electricity, which is only about 19% of the world’s energy needs.
For energy to be reliable, it must be storable. Fossil fuels are a natural form of stored energy, whereas renewables require much more money/infrastructure to store and use on demand.
Electricity uses just 19% of overall energy use, 63% of which comes from fossil fuels.
Of the 32% of total energy used as mobile energy, 90% of it comes from oil.
Contrary to popular belief, the places with the most solar and wind energy generally have the highest electricity costs.
The biggest hurdles solar and wind energy need to overcome are their diluteness and intermittency.
Because solar and wind are intermittent and require a supplementary energy source, they create grid redundancy (two separate grids running concurrently), which naturally drives up the cost of energy.
While building out the productive capacity of nuclear energy is incredibly costly, it is the only energy source with higher energy density than oil.
The benefits of climate mastery afforded to us by fossil fuels often offset any negative externalities that follow from the use of those fossil fuels.
Dismissing or trivializing climate mastery is akin to dismissing a vaccine for an illness like polio. The problem isn’t much of a problem if we have an effective solution.
Increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere lead to increased levels of plant growth.
Given there are countless historical examples of global temperature and CO2 levels going in opposite directions, CO2 is clearly not the overriding factor in climate.
Global warming is primarily isolated in the coldest regions of the planet, and the rise of average global temperatures would lead to a more tropical planet, not a waterless desert.
Water vapor is the strongest greenhouse gas. Without it and the other greenhouse gases, the earth’s service would be about 60°F cooler (global ice age).
Greenhouse gases have a diminishing effect on temperature, meaning more CO2 or other greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere will have an incrementally smaller effect on the planet’s temperature.
The ultra-cost-effective energy we get from fossil fuels is fundamental to the unnatural, amazing livability of our world today.
Energy is the industry needed to power every other industry, meaning the most abundant, cost-effective source of energy will maximize societal productivity and flourishing.
When you establish the goal of society is to promote human flourishing, not minimize our impact on the world regardless of the negative consequences, abundant, cost-effective energy like fossil fuels becomes a necessary input.
Acknowledging that the benefits of using fossil fuels outweigh the negatives is not the same as denying human-induced climate change. Fossil fuels can contribute to average global temperatures incrementally edging higher and still be worth using.